Third World Power Play

When China and India “hook up”, it’s more like a third of the world in play – because the power is in their sheer numbers. John Lancaster’s report entitled “India, China Hoping to 'Reshape the World Order' Together” in today’s Washington Post makes me want to say “I told you so”. In any event, the highlights of Mr. Lancaster’s report are as follows:

* “India-China relations have now acquired a global and strategic character” per a joint statement by the two nations
* China also announced its support for India's bid for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council
* China and India signed agreements on trade, economic cooperation, technology sharing, civil aviation and other matters
* India and China pledged to boost their trade to $20 billion by 2008 (the same level as US-India trade in 2004)

Well, nearly two years ago, in response to a George Melloan article[1], I had written a letter to The Wall Street Journal on June 24, 2003. Although it was never published, I would like to reproduce the following excerpt from that letter, which I have also included in my book, “The Bush Diaries”:

Coincidentally, only a day earlier, the leader of the world’s most populous country, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China welcomed the leader of the world’s largest democracy, Prime Minister Vajpayee of India. If President Bush were following a truly principled foreign policy, which actually saw the forest for the trees, he would recognize that our long-term interests are not being served by sacrificing our democratic ideals at the expense of our security needs? Pushing India, a close ally of Russia, into the arms of China – creates a triumvirate with far-reaching influence across the globe! How long before Germany and France jump on that bandwagon?

Then in January of this year, I made this further observation in my yet to be published “The Bush Diaries”:

But I see two headstrong democracies, the oldest and the largest, butting heads over foreign policy differences, much along the lines that I have written throughout this book. Now that India’s economy has opened up, I can see the United States and India getting closer as economic partners – in the long run, probably developing stronger economic ties than we have with China? Whether we can make India a true political and military ally anytime soon is highly doubtful? Our post-9/11 tilt towards Pakistan, despite its links to the Taliban government in Afghanistan, did not sit well with the larger Indian population. Also, the recent rewarding of “major non-NATO ally” status to Pakistan, while Osama Bin Laden is still on the loose inside Pakistan, was a slap in the face to India. If the U.S. pushes for making India a permanent member of the Security Council, as it should be, then “Old Europe could make some headway for New Delhi”. Although I do believe that we do not need to sacrifice Old Europe, in order to make new friends. Nevertheless, it is a strategic imperative for the United States to quickly re-align itself to the new realities in the Asia-Pacific region.

When Thom Shanker and Joel Brinkley's report entitled, "U.S. Is Set to Sell Jets to Pakistan; India Is Critical" appeared recently in The New York Times, I notched up another unpublished letter (dated March 26, 2005) that provided this blunt admonition:

In the post-Cold War era, U.S. foreign policy can no longer be based on equating its traditional ally, Pakistan, with India. This is tantamount to equating Taiwan with China - which continues to be under a Western nations arms embargo that the Bush Administration is pressuring the European Union from lifting. The overall effect of this Bush policy is going to bring, not only China and India closer, but also rekindle Russia as a potential arms supplier to both nations. From an economic standpoint, OPEC countries such as Iran and Venezuela have already announced as key suppliers of their energy needs. It isn't unrealistic to expect a new Shiite power (Iran-Iraq) to emerge as a counter to the reigning Sunni (Saudi Arabia-Kuwait-U.A.E) sway in OPEC.

As the new triumvirate of China-India-Russia becomes increasingly powerful, its influence will start drawing other nations such as Afghanistan, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, and eventually the new Iraq further away from the U.S. fold. If we do not play our foreign policy cards right, we could witness a structural realignment in the next decade, whose impact on the western world could be worse than that of the Cold War. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.

In the light of today’s Post report, this power play - by two nations that represent a third of humanity - is the first big move towards aforementioned structural realignment. I trust that the foreign policy visionaries in the Bush Administration are looking beyond “freedom and democracy” in the Middle East. For there is a political tsunami brewing further east and it has the potential to wash up far beyond its shores!

[1] George Melloan writes the “Global View” column for The Wall Street Journal. This particular article entitled “Bush Wades Into Some of The World's Worst Messes” appeared in his column on June 24, 2003.